A newly published scientific research report reveals a gap over two decades in international nuclear inventory that remained undetected till date: thousands of metric tonne of natural uranium extracted from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and exported from the country hidden in cobalt hydroxide ores that were largely unreported to IAEA.
This study appeared in the scientific journal Nature Communications on July 30, 2026, and was performed by a group of scientists working at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and Princeton University. Analyzing the data collected on mineralization and geochemistry across the entire country, trade data by mine, and the chemical model of cobalt processing, researchers found that export volume of natural uranium included in shipments of cobalt-hydroxide ore from DRC equaled to 2,000-5,000 metric tons over 2000-2024.
This is equivalent to 4.4 million - 11 million pounds of uranium, which has been registered and reported to the IAEA not more than ten percent in terms of their obligation to trace the movement of natural uranium and yellowcake around the world to make sure this substance would be used for peaceful purposes according to global non-proliferation standards.
It is important to note that DRC does not provide any information about production of uranium for many years, despite the fact that DRC has a long history as a place where the uranium comes from, one of the best known origins is the Shinkolobwe Mine, which had provided the raw materials for the Manhattan Project in 1940s.
The secret behind this process is explained by the elementary principles of geochemistry of ores. The problem is that some uranium is found simultaneously with cobalt in underground layers of the copperbelt in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Thus, the cobalt-hydroxide concentrate used for the production of battery grade cobalt will inevitably contain some uranium.
The majority of those shipments go to China, the nation operating about 95 percent of global capacity of cobalt processing plants, according to researchers of the project. The point is that when the crude cobalt hydroxide is refined to a pure cobalt metal in order to be applied for batteries and other purposes, uranium comes as a valuable by-product of the process.
Scientists behind this study make an effort to emphasize that there is nothing to suggest that this phenomenon was somehow engineered in order to illegally export the material. It seems that this process became possible only due to the fact that the extraction of uranium is simply overlooked by regulatory institutions due to geological reasons.
The sheer volume of the problem is the factor that has been causing the most interest on the part of nuclear security analysts. According to this research paper, the range of uranium, which is estimated at 2,000 to 5,000 metric tons, can yield fissile materials for 600 to 1,500 atomic bombs. Otherwise, the mentioned amount of metal can supply a regular light-water nuclear reactor with the necessary amount of material during 10 to 25 years.
Since this quantity of the metal was never officially declared as a mined or refined substance, there cannot be any restrictions for its further usage. It has already been noticed that such metal can find usage in a civilian atomic energy industry, or military one without any documents proving the location of the metal production and destination.
In addition to the previously mentioned factors, there is an important aspect related to the geopolitical background. The nuclear weapons arsenal of Chinabe found in almost doubled to about 600 atomicindustry orta militarydecade. In addition, according to Pentagon estimates, the amount of the mentioned arsenal might grow to 1,000 bombs until 2030. As has already been stated above, there is a lot of undeclared uranium imports and production in China and it does not account to the fast growth of the aforementioned arsenal.
While the implications of the research do pertain to arms proliferation, it should be mentioned that there also is the risk that the uranium contained in mining waste streams poses for environment and health of miners.
Radioactive substances can be released through mining and cannot be controlled and removed due to the lack of any uranium safety program, as there was no uranium ore found. Therefore, people can suffer from health problems related to contact with uranium tailings.
Notably, the industry representatives tend to minimize uranium quantities in their cobalt products regardless of scientific evidence to the contrary. In this context, the study was made when the Congolese government had been trying to assert more control over all critical minerals in general and cobalt in particular due to overproduction and low prices of this metal in early 2025.
The problem resulted in the fact that cobalt was sold for less than 10 US dollars per pound because of excessive mining organized by Chinese mining companies.
The quota for exporting the mineral to other countries was established in order to regulate the situation. It involves limits for exporting quantities of the mineral along with allocation of quotas among producers, such as Chinese company CMOC and Swiss Glencore.
There are already disputes related to the regulation of exporting process.
